A summit waiting for a miracle
Alfredo Sirkis comments on the results of the ONU climate meeting in New York last Monday.
The ONU Climate Summit in New York produced a great freak show, but little substantive. In fact, some 60 countries waved to a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, which is a good thing. Among them, however, were not the biggest emitters: China, USA and India. China has just reaffirmed that it will comply with its NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) of the Paris Agreement -nothing new- India has prevaricated by promising to increase the use of clean energy, but has not mentioned emissions targets beyond its very weak, though protracted, NDC.
The US, on the other hand... well, Trump made a 14 minute incursion into the "enemy" plenary, provoking, less than booing, laughter. He said nothing. Germany was one of the countries that committed to zero net emissions in 2050, but it said nothing about the coal plants that it intends to maintain until 2038, which is less serious because of the emissions themselves than because of the bad example, because of the excuses it gives to the big coal companies (China, which exports, India, USA, Poland, Australia, Turkey, Greece, South Africa, Indonesia): "Gone, without even Germany...".
This 2019 is heading to be the second hottest year in history, at best, and it is even tedious -and no doubt sad- to evoke the most recent scientific studies, which can be summarized as follows: the hole is even lower than we all thought.
Nothing that is being cooked diplomatically takes us close to cutting emissions by 45% by 2030 and zeroing net emissions by 2050, so that we have a chance to limit global warming by 1.5°C this century (the World Meteorological Organization published a report before the New York meeting showing that we are already at 1.1°C). The current international political situation seriously questions compliance with the NDCs of the Paris Agreement, which, even if all were strictly enforced, would bring us 3°C or more. A catastrophe.
Brazil, which in the previous period was well on the tape, now, with deforestation predicted for more than 10,000 square kilometers in the Amazon, will not even come close to meeting the goal of its National Policy on Climate Change, which was to reach 3,900 square kilometers by 2020. Thus, we are on a trajectory of between 1.8 billion and 2 billion tons of CO2 for 2030, instead of the 1.2 billion tons to which we have committed ourselves. Although, in theory, there is still time to reverse this following the directions of the Initial Proposal for the Implementation of the Brazilian NDC, the map of the way to do our homework.
Jair Bolsonaro's speech to the General Assembly on Tuesday (24) was so ridiculous that it was not even highlighted by the great international press - these Marxist/globalist and anti-Christian pasquins so hated by our chancellor. It became an internet joke. Brazil, which in the past led diplomatic movements, falls into the irrelevance, mockery and contempt of the international community. Our government became a bad joke.
He ended up being represented in a more dignified way by the governors of Amapá, Valdez Góes, at the forest meeting organized by President Emmanuel Macron, and the governor of Pernambuco, Paulo Câmara, who, representing all states of the Northeast plus the Holy Spirit, spoke at an ACA (Alliances for Action for Carbon Neutrality in 2050) event, practically at the same time as the grotesque and obtuse presidential speech.
What is new is the mobilization of young people, the future victims of the catastrophic climate that our generation tends to bequeath to them. Greta Thunberg's gaze of horror on Trump has "turned" around the world. The ONU process - governments, diplomats, the whole world - will, if anything, continue to wallow in the lowest common denominator. The situation demands a spiritual shock and a financial revolution that recognizes the economic value of less carbon as a pillar of civilization.
We're far from all that, but miracles happen.
Source: Observatório do Clima